In 2025 and beyond, trade tensions are likely going to dominate global economic
discourse, with potential shifts in US trade policy under President Trump posing serious
risks. As Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, the prospect of increased
tariffs looms large, threatening to disrupt global value chains and destabilise key trading
relationships. Even the suggestion of such measures creates uncertainty and affects
trade, investment, and economic growth.
Meanwhile, some countries are going to be most exposed to harsh consequences of the
US policy changes. Countries with high trade surpluses with the US are particularly
open to these risks. According to 2023 trade figures from UNCTAD, (which were used
for the 2024 end-of-the-year analysis), some of those countries include:
● China: $280 billion surplus
● European Union: $205 billion surplus
● Viet Nam: $105 billion surplus
● India: $45 billion surplus
Other nations with significant trade surpluses that may also face potential challenges
are:
● Mexico: $150 billion surplus
● Canada: $70 billion surplus
● Japan: $70 billion surplus
● Republic of Korea: $50 billion surplus
Despite relatively lower tariffs or existing trade agreements, these countries remain
vulnerable to impending changes in policy that could disrupt their trade dynamics.
Adding more complexity to the issue is the uncertain nature of the US dollar and
anticipated shifts in US macroeconomic policies, which further heighten global
concerns.
In this climate of unpredictability, nations must adopt adaptive strategies and strengthen
regional partnerships to reduce risks. Governments (especially those of the countries
most exposed to the risks), policymakers, and business organisations have to be
proactive and use foresight, and other strategies that can help to improve the stability of
global trade.